Myelofibrosis AlloRisk Stratifier

The Myelofibrosis AlloRisk Stratifier has been meticulously developed by leveraging the comprehensive EBMT database, which encompasses a wide array of myelofibrosis patients who have undergone allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) between 2005 and 2020. This robust foundation has been augmented with sophisticated machine learning algorithms, enabling the tool to accurately predict individual patient risk levels based on 10 variables taken at the time of transplant.

This innovative model serves as a powerful instrument for inferring patient risk, providing invaluable insights into the potential outcomes following allo-HCT. However, it's important to note that while the AlloRisk Stratifier is adept at risk assessment, it is not designed to dictate specific transplant conditioning protocols or graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis strategies. Its primary objective is to inform and enhance clinical decision-making by offering a clearer understanding of risk profiles.

Patients are classified in 4 different groups:

  1. Low risk. Patients in the Low risk group can anticipate favorable outcomes, reflecting a lower risk associated with the transplantation process.
  2. Intermediate-1 and Intermediate-2. These groups represent a middle ground, where patients typically experience average results, with no significant difference between these two categories.
  3. High risk. Patients identified in the High risk group may face more challenging prognosis, with an increased likelihood of unfavorable outcomes.

By incorporating this risk stratification tool into the clinical workflow, healthcare professionals can achieve a more nuanced understanding of patient risks, thereby facilitating more tailored and informed treatment planning. This approach ultimately aims to optimize patient care and improve the overall success rates of allo-HCT in the myelofibrosis patient population.

Patient and Transplant characteristics

Age

HCT-CI Score

Karnofsky Performance Status

Leukocytes (10^9/L)

Blood Blasts (%)

Hemoglobin (g/dL)

Platelets (10^9/L)

Donor Type

Type of conditioning

Type of GVHD prophylaxis

Risk Bars

The risk bar graphically represents a patient's risk level as a percentile, ranging from 0 to 100. A score of 0 signifies minimum risk, while 100 represents maximum risk. Visually, the bar evolves in color from green to red to indicate the level of risk: green denotes low risk, and red signifies high risk. This percentile and color-coded system provides an immediate, intuitive understanding of how a patient's risk compares to the broader population, assisting in informed medical decision-making.

Non-Relapse Mortality & Mortality Rate

The model predicts each patient's Non-Relapse Mortality (NRM) and overall Mortality Rate at 12 and 24 months. NRM represents the chance of death from non-relapse causes, while Mortality Rate covers all causes. For example, a 20% 24-month NRM means a 20% risk of dying from non-relapse causes in the first two years after transplantation.